My initial 2022 ratings, explained
Ohio: Safe R
Don’t waste your money on this one. Ohio was 12.5 points to the right of the nation in 2020, and didn’t move at all from 2016 to 2020. In a neutral national enviornment, it won’t be close. In a D+4 national enviornment, it won’t be close. Even if Republicans nominate a Q believer, they’re heavily favored here.
Florida: Likely R
Rubio overperformed Trump by 7 points in 2016. Florida was 8 points right of the nation in 2020. This isn’t much more winnable than Ohio, and you could argue that it should be Safe R.
Wisconsin: Likely R
Ron Johnson overperformed Trump by 2.5 points in 2016. Wisconsin was almost 4 points left of the nation in 2020. It’s not nearly as bad of a situation as Florida, but I’m quite bearish on the future of Wisconsin. There’s still plenty of room to fall in rural counties, and not a whole lot of room to gain in the suburbs. People really overrate the potential of the WOW counties to save Democrats in Wisconsin long-term. They’re only about 10% of the state’s population, they’re not growing much, and they’re *very* white, even compared to other Midwest suburbs (about 89%).
North Carolina: Lean R
North Carolina was 6 points right of the nation in 2020. This is an open seat race. The future of this state is tough to game out. It swung 2.3 points left from 2016 to 2020, almost exactly the same as the nation as a whole. It’s not as educated as Virginia, it’s not as metropolitan as Arizona or Nevada, and it’s whiter than Georgia. I have it rated as Tilt R for 2024, but for 2022, Dems will likely need a bad GOP nominee to have a chance. We’ll see what happens.
Pennsylvania: Lean R
This may be the race where the Twitter conventional wisdom is most dumb. People straight up think Dems are favored here. They’re wrong. PA was 3.3 points right of the nation in 2020, and swung less than the nation from 2016 to 2020. It’s much more winnable than Wisconsin, but it’s still a race Republicans should win in a neutral enviornment, which would be a fairly optimistic scenario.
Georgia: Tilt R
Georgia was the huge success story of the 2020 cycle, but people saying it’s gonna be Virginia soon are getting way too carried away. Georgia was 4 points right of the nation in 2020. In a neutral national enviornment, this should be a close race. If the national enviornment is more like 2010 or 2014, Warnock is in trouble.
Arizona: Tilt R
I’m actually more optimistic on the long-term future of Arizona than Georgia. I think there’s a ton of room to grow in this hyper-metropolitan state, both with college whites who swung left in 2020, and Latino voters who swung right in 2020. In 2022 though, I see Arizona as having virtually identical odds as Georgia. Both will have incumbents who have only served 2 years, in states that are trending Dem, but were 4 points right of the nation in 2020.
Nevada: Tilt R
Nevada was 2 points right of the nation in 2020. It didn’t shift at all from 2016 to 2020, with Democratic gains in highly educated precincts being cancelled out by Republican gains in heavily Hispanic and rural precincts. The big reason to be pessimistic about the future of Nevada is education: Bachelor’s degree attainment is only 25%, compared to 30% in Arizona, 31% in North Carolina and Georgia, and 39% in Virginia. You can argue Dems would be slightly favored in a neutral enviornment due to incumbency, but I have it as Tilt R on the idea that an R+2 enviornment is more likely
New Hampshire: Lean D
One of the main reasons the Electoral College gap widened in 2020 is that New England swung massively to Biden — but none of those states were flips, as Clinton also swept the region. New Hampshire swung 7% — that’s more than Georgia (5.4%) or Arizona (3.8%). Republicans probably need a national enviornment of around R+5 to have a shot to win. I’d bet against that at even odds, but it’s certainly possible.
Colorado: Likely D
The second most educated state swung 8.5 points left from 2016 to 2020, more than any other state except Vermont. With a Democratic incumbent, this seat should only be in play in the event of a massive Red Wave. It’s unlikely, but it’s more likely than Democrats flipping Ohio.
The modal outcome
The most likely scenario is that the national enviorment is something like R+2, Democrats fail to make any pickups, and Republicans pick up 2 out of {GA, AZ, NV}, or perhaps even all three.
To have shot to hold the Senate, Dems probably need a national enviornment around D+2. That would be incredibly good for the in-party during a midterm. It’s absolutely imperative that Democrats nuke the filibuster and add new states during 2021.
